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New Public Polling Has Lucas Kunce and Josh Hawley Within Margin Of Error

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Tuesday, Nov. 7, 2023

Today, Show Me Victory released a new independent poll that shows a tight race between Josh Hawley and Lucas Kunce.

Lucas Kunce – 42%

Josh Hawley – 46%

Margin of Error – 4.9%

Full info on the poll can be found here.

“The numbers across polling of this race are starting to tell a similar story,” says Elizabeth Sena, Partner at GQR and Pollster for Lucas Kunce. “Despite having near universal name ID, Josh Hawley remains in the mid-40s, falling far short of the critical 50% threshold we’d expect to see from an incumbent in a redder state. Meanwhile, Lucas Kunce, a Marine veteran who grew up like everyday Missourians, is clearly starting to resonate with Missouri voters. He’s got a real shot at winning this race in 2024.”

The poll also demonstrated that despite President Joe Biden having a net approval of -18% among Missouri voters, those same voters were evenly split at 45% approval and 45% disapproval for Josh Hawley — showing Missouri’s long tradition of split-ticket voting is very much still alive. 

“We’ve known from the start that Josh Hawley is vulnerable,” said Caleb Cavarretta, Campaign Manager for Lucas Kunce. “Poll after poll has shown him to be the weakest Republican incumbent up for reelection this cycle. But Lucas Kunce isn’t just running a race opposing Josh Hawley — he’s running to put real Missourians first, to invest in this state, and to fight back against the corporate class that has gutted our communities. Missourians are responding to that message and getting excited about having a real warrior for working people represent them, not some fraud. That’s why this is already shaping up to be such a tight race.”

Even Josh Hawley agrees. 

“Missouri could be one of the closest Senate races in America,” said Hawley.